Magnolia, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

143
FXUS64 KSHV 250748
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
248 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Daybreak this Friday morning will find the shortwave responsible for
yesterday evening`s storms continuing to weaken as it treks eastward
out of the region and across the Mississippi Valley. In its wake,
upper level ridging will build across the Plains of Texas through
the day today, setting the stage for continued warmth to close
out this week and usher in the weekend. The full scope of the
effects of this ridging remain somewhat unclear, however. While it
is to be expected for such a synoptic level feature to introduce
subsidence and thus suppress convection, such behavior may be
fairly weak, looking insufficient to entirely wipe away the
prevalent moisture and instability which has been present lately
across the ArkLaTex.

Thus, while this upper level set up takes shape, guidance has been
reluctant to entirely eliminate rainfall chances. Accounting for the
considerations described above in this contest between subsidence
and instability, trended PoPs slightly down from NBM for the heart
of the ArkLaTex, leaving middling chances for our eastern zones this
afternoon. Friday night into Saturday looks mostly dry, before a
weak disturbance riding along the upper level ridge kicks up chances
for scattered showers and storms mainly north of I-30 Saturday
morning, spreading south into the afternoon as the attendant surface
boundary nudges its way closer. These rainfall chances look to
retreat after sundown tomorrow.

Another warm afternoon is in store today as highs climb into the low
to middle 80s, followed by a mild night of middle to upper 60s. The
effects of the ridging will become apparent Saturday afternoon, when
highs climb into the lower 80s north and middle to upper 80s south.

/26/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Our late week and early weekend ridge will be pushed eastward by
Sunday, with a new and more robust ridge taking its place. The
strengthening of this upper level feature will be aided by a
longwave trough making its way onshore over the California coast
this weekend. As the trough pushes east over the Sierra Nevada and
into the greater Rockies, it will strengthen and amplify around a
large deepening closed low.

Residual showers and storms from Saturday`s disturbance should clear
out swiftly early Sunday morning, making way for dry conditions to
last just long enough to wrap up the weekend and begin the last work
week of April. Under the ridging responsible for this respite,
temperatures will continue their warming trend, with area
thermometers easily reaching the middle to upper 80s Sunday and
Monday, with some sites likely taking aim at hitting the 90 degree
mark.

The last phase of the long term forecast period looks to see a
return to a characteristic springtime unsettled pattern. The
aforementioned closed low looks to advance north and east over the
northern Plains, while the trough retains its amplification south
and west, stretching and developing a positive tilt. This
configuration will introduce southwest flow aloft over the ArkLaTex,
funneling moisture into the warm environment. The southwest flow
pattern looks to be slow to break down as the week continues, while
the troughing to the west reorganizes around a new closed low,
threatening to advance eastward over the southern Plains. Precisely
when such an eastward progress will manifest, and to what degree it
may reintroduce organized severe weather chances, remain hazy at
this early point. Nevertheless, moisture returns indicate showers
and storms arriving Tuesday and continuing near areawide through to
the end of this forecast period.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

A weak upper-level ridge building across the region from the west
will allow for mainly dry conditions across much of the region on
Friday. However, could see VCTS conditions across mainly MLU/ELD
during the afternoon in the wake of a departing trough. Convection
chances still too low to mention in TAFs. Otherwise, IFR/LIFR
ceilings possible across most sites overnight with a few
locations across E Texas possibly experiencing IFR/LIFR vsbys
also. Light and variable winds to become SW at 5 to 8 knots on
Friday, decreasing to light and variable after 26/00Z. /05/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  69  87  68 /  20  10  30  20
MLU  84  67  86  66 /  50  10  30  20
DEQ  83  64  81  63 /  10  10  60  30
TXK  85  66  85  66 /  10  10  50  20
ELD  84  64  85  63 /  30  10  50  30
TYR  85  67  85  66 /  10  10  20  10
GGG  85  66  85  64 /  20  10  30  10
LFK  87  66  88  66 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...05